NBA Top Shot: Welcome to the Future of Collecting— Here’s What You Should Know
On the morning of February 19th, my friends and I discovered NBA Top Shot. We were later to the party than some, but earlier than most. I know for sure I read those three words, “NBA Top Shot,” prior to that day, and will probably always have a sliver of regret for not getting involved sooner. My older brother claims he had texted me about it in early February and it is completely possible I have already repressed those memories into the deepest, darkest caverns of my brain. Nevertheless, that day we created our accounts, and ever since, I’ve been hooked on what I truly believe is one of the most innovative new products and passionate communities of the Internet age.
I am far from an expert, but do own a “Top 1%” account and was featured in Top Shot’s Community Spotlight blog series. I have invested a few thousand dollars into the platform over the past 60 days, and more time than I’m willing to admit, so I feel somewhat qualified to wax poetic about it, because I genuinely love it.
NBA Top Shot is a digital marketplace that empowers basketball fans, investors, and collectors to own “Moments,” which are beautifully designed interactive highlights of different NBA players, in the form of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs). Every transaction to ever take place is recorded on the blockchain, creating a transparent audit trail and public ledger of all activity across thousands of accounts.
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Imagine if the stock market never closed and you knew the owner of every share of any stock before you purchased it? That’s what Dapper Labs, the company behind Top Shot, has created in partnership with the NBA.
Moments can be acquired through pack drops, which occur a few times per month and can range from $9 to $999, and a 24/7 marketplace, where users can freely buy and sell any moment they own for a price they decide.
Beyond the sheer “coolness” factor of the product, and the evolution of static paper cards into dynamic video moments, this is the largest social experiment to ever take place around investing. The psychology of pricing and each individual buyer and seller’s personal appetite for immediate satisfaction or patient opportunism are on display every minute of the day. Thousands of transactions occur in real-time every hour, and with them, a constantly fluctuating sense of value.
With thousands of unique moments available, ranging in price point from aspirational to attainable, it’s easy to dip your toes into the water and quickly find yourself swimming in the pool for hours. The user interface and experience of Top Shot, and how simple it is to buy and sell, cannot be understated. The technology is extremely complex, but the front-end store and website is gorgeous and easy to navigate.
All of that being said, if you are new to Top Shot, or considering getting involved, here are a few tips that you might find helpful:
Collect what you love
There are a lot of different strategies around Top Shot, and each has merit, but the easiest and most surefire way to have a positive, rewarding experience is to buy moments from players that you actually care about. As a Knicks fan, the first moment I ever purchased was an RJ Barrett “Series Two” moment with a /15000 “mint count.” I’ll get into what those two terms mean next.
After RJ, I just looked for cool plays within my budget that felt undervalued or had interesting context around them, like moments from the NBA Bubble during the pandemic. Over time, I have refined and focused my personal collecting strategy around a theme that I will be happy with regardless of “account value” or market volatility. The New York Knicks.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve sold all the random moments I owned that seemed cool or special at the time and quickly lost their luster, and reinvested into my favorite players from my favorite team. Maybe that’s a no-brainer, but it is easy to chase shiny new objects or get caught in the hype of something outside your typical interests.
Think about what you want to collect before you start.
When I first started out, owning more expensive moments from players like Lebron James felt like an achievement to aspire towards, and eventually I was able to buy his signature “starter kit” of a /7500 dunk and /15000 three. A week later, which can feel like an eternity in Top Shot time, and amidst a gradually depreciating value, I decided to sell both. Why? Because the honest truth is that I never really liked Lebron that much.
Seeing those moments in my account every day brought me no joy. They may have been “responsible” or “safe” investment choices if I were more disciplined and could stomach holding those two moments for another month or two, but I am weak, just like Lebron’s argument as the greatest player of all time.
Learn the basics
Top Shot is simple enough; you can buy moments from different players and they get added to your personal collection. But the intricacies of each moment, why they have value, and which you should target depends on some defining principles. Right now, moments fall into two core categories, loosely defined by the NBA season they were released during; “Series One” and “Series Two.” From there, you’ll find different flavors of moments, ranging from scarcity (common, rare and legendary) to mint count (how many of each moment exist), which can range from /49 to /35000. A legendary moment with a /49 mint count is naturally way more valuable and expensive than a common moment with /35000 available. Then again, there are still less than one million people using Top Shot, and exponentially more global fans of the NBA, so one day, even a moment with 35,000 available may feel rare in context.
Finally, there are unique characteristics that a moment can possess, like a player’s first moment (their debut on the platform), their rookie season or debut, and a specific, limited-run collection they can be a part of; All Stars, Rising Stars, First Round, Cool Cats, Metallic Gold, Holo, Deck the Hoops, and Cosmic, to name a few.
If you are a Luka Doncic fan, you can typically find his most affordable moment (Common /35000) between $21 — $29, but his most exclusive and coveted moment is nearly $100,000.
I highly recommend reading Top Shot’s “Getting Started” guides and general blog posts just to familiarize yourself with some of the more nuanced elements of what’s available and how it all works. My personal favorite source of education and news outside of Top Shot is the team from The First Mint, who have a great newsletter, podcast, and Twitter feed.
When it comes to pack drops, which are the most cost-conscious way of growing your collection, Twitter can often be the fastest way to find out when one is happening. A Top Shot OG, Jack Settleman, has a pack drop texting service that is especially helpful if you aren’t a big Twitter user. Text the word “PACKS” to 443–383–4140 and you’ll get added to the list.
For any major pack drop, Top Shot always gives 24 hour notice via email, but occasional “stress tests” can happen with less than an hour of advanced notice.
Be cautious of challenges
Every month, the Top Shot team rolls out a few different challenges, which give each user a unique, limited edition moment as a reward for meeting specific criteria.
It’s a compelling proposition — collect 5 or 10 moments and get one really cool and exclusive one for free, but often times, the juice is not worth the squeeze. Here’s why:
When a challenge is announced, the demand for the respective moments involved often inflate in value upwards of 250% from their standard price. Upon the conclusion of the challenge, the prices plummet back down to earth, and the reward is rarely valuable enough to make up for the investment required to complete the challenge.
Buying the reward from the marketplace is almost always less expensive than the total cost of completing the challenge. If you are focused on “making money” from Top Shot, or at the very least, investing responsibly, challenges are not something I would advise. In my experience completing two of them, they are responsible for the biggest losses I’ve incurred and largest dent in my “account value.”
Timing is everything
There are three core drivers of price in Top Shot: overall market trends (bull markets and bear markets exist here, like in any other market), player news and events (retirement, trades, or outstanding performances), and scarcity (overall availability of the moment). The most relevant and predictable of these three drivers is around scarcity, which is something I have personally fallen “victim” to and have seen others continue to chase.
Whenever a new moment is released, there is the possibility you can “pull it” in a pack drop or purchase it from the marketplace. Top Shot will rarely release 100% of the inventory around a moment in one pack drop. New moments are exciting and it’s easy to want to add them to your collection, especially if they are a player you love. But it’s essential to be patient in these instances and use research tools like Evaluate Market (examples pictured below) so you put yourself in a position to buy at the optimal time.
When Immanuel Quickley’s first moment came out, only a few hundred of the total 4,000 to ever exist were released. Demand exceeded supply, which led to prices upwards of $1,000 to buy it. Today, with 2,720/4,000 released (still only 68%), the price is around $250. Nothing has fundamentally changed about it other than the fact that more are available.
A similar pattern can be found with Malik Monk, who recently had his first moment debut released. Within 36 hours, the price rose from $25 to over $200, and then quickly fell back down below $50. In the most recent pack drop, another wave of Malik Monk’s inventory was released, and now the moment can be purchased for around $15.
You’re entitled to buy anything when you want and for whatever price you choose, of course, but if you want to be conscious of long-term value and the potential for your investments to increase in value, patience can be essential to buy a specific moment at the right time. None of this is investment advice, for what it’s worth. You do you.
I spent $2,500 to complete “The Gift” challenge because I wanted the Derrick Rose reward, and sold all of those moments six weeks later at a $2,000 loss because looking at them made me feel like shit. I purchased Immanuel Quickley’s first moment for $1,000. I snagged Malik Monk for $20 and sold it for $150 the next day. I’ve learned all of this first hand, so if you’ve read this far, maybe you can avoid some of the mistakes I experienced and make the most of your money as you grow your collection. Which brings me to my last point.
Make a list, check it twice, and plan accordingly
There are so many cool plays from different sets available in the marketplace, and more inventory will be released on a consistent basis. Exploring the massive selection is extremely fun. Right now the feature to “save” desired moments or add them to a wish-list isn’t available within Top Shot (although it will likely come in the future), so for now, I recommend making a list of specific moments or players you want. Use Word, Excel, a notebook…whatever you want. Prices fluctuate all the time, both on the moments you own and the ones you don't, so things that may seem unattainable the day you start might suddenly be within your range a few weeks later. Whenever you see something you might want, add it to your list. Let it guide you and the decisions you make. Sooner than later, those moments might be within reach!
But as you buy, sell, and collect, be conscious of your costs. Every time you sell, there is a 5% cut taken from your price. If you buy something for $1000 and don’t plan on keeping it, just realize that if you decide to sell it for $1000, you are actually losing $50 on your total investment. One of the benefits of buying (and selling) less expensive moments is that the 5% is a much smaller toll to pay for your activity. It’s better to set a budget for yourself, deposit that money into your account up front, and play with that balance, versus paying via credit card for every transaction, which also has a 5% fee per purchase. At the end of the day, Top Shot is extremely fun and unique, but make sure you only invest what you can afford.
In future posts, I’ll share some of my personal favorite low budget, mid-price, and high-end moments, but there is no “right” or “wrong” moment to buy.
Sure, it’s never a bad idea to buy star players, or things that may feel historic in context, but ultimately, it’s up to you to buy what you want and be comfortable with those decisions. It’s your money. It’s your collection. Whatever advice you seek or follow, nobody is responsible for what you do other than yourself.
Good luck in future pack drops, and remember that even if you start today, you are still relatively early in what is likely to be a long and exciting adventure.
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