Embrace Debate Volume 01: Series One Debut NBA Top Shot Moments

It started harmlessly enough on the evening of Cinco de Mayo, scrolling through the NBA Top Shot Marketplace under the influence of three margaritas. My wife asleep by my side, my infant daughter asleep in her room next door, and any interest in watching a TV show or movie distracted by the allure of … Series One Moments under the price of $130, the current balance in my Dapper wallet.

If you’re anything like me, you spend whatever Dapper balance you have like it has a 60-minute expiration date, so while I considered what I wanted to add to my collection, I posed the question to my modest, passionate community of NBA Top Shot Twitter followers too.

Which of these six options would you choose if you could only have one?

There is no “right” answer, of course; it’s whichever player you like the most. Whether they play for your favorite team, you like the player, or you just love the Moment, every decision you make should be your own.

But over 150 Top Shot collectors responded to my tweet within 24 hours, sparking a heated debate about who the best option is and why. None of their opinions were biased at all; it was a completely level-headed, thoughtful dialogue amongst strangers on the Internet.

At the end of the day, Miles Bridges reigned supreme, with CJ McCollum coming in a close second. Duncan Robinson and Mikal Bridges trailed behind, with John Collins and Tobias Harris receiving by far the least support.

So I decided to dive a little deeper and see if there might be any data-driven insights that could help inform the decision. Using some fundamental analysis consideration points and data from Evaluate Market, here’s what I found.

All six players are on teams that are poised to make the NBA Playoffs, so there is upside tied to how far they go and how well they perform on the biggest stage imaginable. An epic playoff run, sparked by outstanding performances by each individual player, in alignment with a surge of new NBA Top Shot users, could raise the floor and ceiling for any of them.

McCollum is arguably the “best” player with the highest usage rate, and Bridges is a highlight factory and beloved by social media. Duncan Robinson is on pace to be one of the most prolific three-pointer shooters of all time, and is building his own media brand out through a podcast on JJ Redick’s ThreeFourTwo network. Mikal Bridges has the fewest Moments available, and is arguably on the best team amongst the six. John Collins is about to sign a massive contract extension and is part of a promising young core. Tobias Harris is part of the 76ers “Big Three” and one of the most underrated players in the NBA. McCollum and Robinson are both “Certified Ballers” on Top Shot.

From a highlight perspective, Miles Bridges’ is probably the least exciting of any of his dunks on Top Shot, but is a cool Momemt. McCollum’s is a kind of weak, soft dunk, but probably the only dunk highlight he’ll ever have. Duncan Robinson’s is a DEEP three over LeBron James in the NBA Finals. Mikal Bridges, John Collins, and Tobias Harris both deliver pretty nasty dunks in their own right.

So is there anything we can glean from the data specific to the Moments themselves? Here’s a deep look into each specific Moment.

As you can see, Duncan Robinson technically has the least available based on “Mint Count” by 50% (this is the total inventory of Moments to ever exist for this play). He also has the highest ownership percentage and lowest sales volume, which means that the people who own that Moment are not looking to sell it. The 30 day low is tied for the highest with Tobias Harris, so it has the strongest floor, and it also has the unique context of being the only option amongst the six to take place in the Playoffs, in the NBA Finals, and in the Bubble. Miles Bridges has the highest 30-day volume by far, so he would arguably be the easiest to buy, or sell, if you wanted him. I believe that’s a reflection of his popularity and how often you’ll see one of his dunks on social media, driving people to check out what’s available on Top Shot.

Ultimately, the decision is yours. I would personally rank them (worst to best) McCollum, Collins, Harris, Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges, Duncan Robinson. I don’t currently own any, and will likely add two or three to my collection in the next week or two. I used to own both Duncan and Miles, but sold them to pursue other opportunities. Duncan was one of the first Moments I bought back in late February when I joined.

As for what I did this specific night, with a few margs circulating through my bloodstream and a Dapper balance burning a hole in my digital wallet?

That would be this Rudy Gobert alley-oop dunk from Donovan Mitchell in the NBA Bubble, his first highlight on Top Shot after being the catalyst for the creation of the Bubble to begin with. I like the Moment, the historical significance, the quality of the players involved and the long-term prospects for both Gobert, Mitchell, and the Jazz. It was a little less expensive, and even though it’s not a First Moment, I still think it’s awesome. It pairs very nicely with the iconic Vince Carter highlight, the last of his career and the last Moment of the NBA season before it shut down because of Gobert.

Thanks for tuning into Volume 01 of Embrace Debate! I hope to make it a recurring series, so be on the lookout for more soon.

You can read some of my other blog posts at the bottom of this one, and check out my collection on Top Shot here.

Questions? Want to talk Top Shot? Feel free to follow me on Twitter!

Top 1% NBA Top Shot account, Knicks fan and collector, and ripper of packs. Writing for fun. Not financial advice. https://nbatopshot.com/user/@PackripEwing